Knowing when to move up stakes in online poker can be difficult because a winning stretch doesn’t necessarily mean you’re ready for tougher games. After playing more than 100,000 hands online, I’ve learned that moving up should have more to do with your long-term results, bankroll, and quality of play than how you’ve performed over the last few sessions.
When Should You Move Up Stakes in Online Poker?
If you have been consistently profitable at the stake you are playing for a few months, then I would consider taking a shot going to the next level. If your bankroll is comfortable enough to hold between 20-30 buy ins at the next stake, then to me it makes sense. That way you are mentally prepared for swings due to variance or finding out that maybe you are not good enough to beat the next tier of players.
Why 100,000 Hands Is Enough to Know If Your Winning
Most people assume 5k-10k hands is enough to get a baseline for how you are playing. But I think that is misleading. You can have a lot of variance over a 10,000 hand sample size where you might be crushing it or slightly losing. So, it’s hard to know based on only 10k hands.
After you play over 50,000 hands you have a better understanding of how you are doing. For a lot of people who are dedicated they can attain this many hands within a month if they are multi-tabling and putting in a decent number of hours per week. But from my experience it is hitting the 100,000 hand threshold that gives you a much better picture of how you are playing. It might take some people 2-3 months to attain this many hands or slightly longer, but this is the best way to figure out how you are doing.
What Win Rate Should You Have Before Moving Up?
If you can attain a 3 big blind per 100 hand margin at any stake you are playing, then that is good enough to move up to the next level. For example, if you are playing 100nl and can hit that mark its $3 per hour. If you can do that over playing 100,000 hands, then you would be ready to move up to 200nl to see if you can then beat that level.
What you often find going up to only one level is that the player quality generally doesn’t get that much better. Most people assume it does but that’s not always the case. Going from 25nl to 50nl is hardly any different. Then going from 100nl to 200nl is a small difference but it’s not so major that the games are super hard to beat. You need to make some adjustments but still in the realm of beatable if you are also improving as you move up. Which will almost come naturally.
Bankroll Requirements for Moving Up
| Approach | Suggested Buy-ins |
| Aggressive | 20–30 |
| Moderate | 30–50 |
| Conservative | 50+ |
Take Shots Instead of Permanently Moving Up
When you think you’re ready to move up in stakes, I wouldn’t immediately make the higher limit your new permanent game. I prefer taking controlled shots first. This gives you a chance to see how you perform against better competition without putting too much of your bankroll at risk.
For example, if you’re consistently winning at 25NL and want to move up to 50NL, set aside three to five buy-ins specifically for your first shot. You could also mix one or two 50NL tables into your normal 25NL sessions instead of moving every table up at once.
The important part is setting your limit before you start. If you lose those shot-taking buy-ins, move back down. Don’t keep playing 50NL because you want to immediately win the money back.
Moving down doesn’t mean the shot was a failure. You now have actual hands against the higher-stakes player pool that you can review. Look at where you struggled, make adjustments, rebuild your bankroll, and try again. I’ve always thought this was a better approach than forcing yourself to stay at a higher limit just because you moved up. Your goal should be long-term profitability, not proving you belong at a certain stake. Looking for a place to play? See my Best Online Poker Sites guide for the poker rooms I currently recommend.
What If You Move Up and Start Losing?
If you move up in stakes and immediately start losing, the worst thing you can do is panic or start chasing your losses. Losing a few buy-ins doesn’t automatically mean you’re not good enough for the higher stake. Variance is still a huge part of online poker, especially over a small sample of hands.
This is why I like setting a stop-loss before taking a shot. If I decide I’m willing to risk five buy-ins at the new stake, that’s where I draw the line. Once those buy-ins are gone, I move back down and return to the games I was consistently beating.
From there, I would review as many hands as possible from the higher-stakes sessions. Were you getting unlucky, or were stronger players exposing weaknesses in your game? Look at your biggest pots, questionable calls, preflop decisions, and situations where you felt uncomfortable.
If you find obvious mistakes, work on them before taking another shot. Most importantly, don’t let your ego determine what stakes you play. There’s nothing wrong with moving back down, rebuilding your bankroll, and trying again later. Moving up should be about increasing your long-term profit—not proving that you can survive at a higher limit.
Final Thoughts
Knowing when its time to move up in stakes comes down to analyzing how you are doing over a large sample size of at least 100,000 hands played. Only then are you going to know what’s really happening. Don’t just assume you are crushing because you’ve been on the right side of a lot of flip situations going your way or your big pocket pairs holding up often.
I think most people need to put their egos aside and really look at the bigger picture. And what I mean is that if you are comfortably dominating the games you are playing in consistently, only then should you consider moving up especially if you are thinking about the money aspect which is something we all eventually do even if we don’t admit it. Just take your time with this and don’t force yourself to move up just because you think you’re ready too.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many hands should I play before moving up stakes?
There isn’t an exact number, but I like using 100,000 hands as a major checkpoint. By then, you should have a much better idea of your win rate, weaknesses, and whether you’re consistently beating your current games.
Is 100,000 hands a good poker sample size?
It’s a meaningful sample, but variance still matters. I wouldn’t move up based on your results alone. Look at your bankroll, BB/100, quality of play, and how comfortable you are against the current player pool.
What win rate should I have before moving up?
I would feel much more comfortable moving up if I were consistently winning around 3–5 BB/100. However, you don’t necessarily need that win rate. A smaller positive win rate can still justify taking a controlled shot.
How many buy-ins should I have before moving up?
For cash games, I generally prefer having around 30–50 buy-ins. If you play a higher-variance game like PLO, I would be even more conservative.
What happens if I move up and lose?
Move back down if you hit your predetermined stop-loss. Review your hands, identify mistakes, rebuild your bankroll, and take another shot later.
Should I permanently move up when I’m ready?
Not necessarily. I prefer taking shots at the next stake first. This lets you test yourself against stronger competition while limiting the amount of your bankroll you’re putting at risk.
Edward Pao is an online poker and casino affiliate marketer with over 10 years of experience in the industry. He has referred over 30,000 players to major poker platforms and specializes in reviewing the best online poker sites and casino bonuses.